CRM Prediction
The Prediction view is a subsection of the CRM Analytics module. It analyzes the last 6 months of actual shipment data from your managed accounts and projects the next 6 months of expected shipment volume based on the active pipeline and each executive's historical closing behavior.
How to Read the Screen
Filters (top of the page)
| Filter | Behavior |
|---|---|
| Executives | Multi-select. Leave empty to include all executives. Filters every metric and chart on the page. |
| Countries | Multi-select. Leave empty to include all countries. Filters every metric and chart on the page. |
There is no date filter. The 6-month historical window always ends today, and the 6-month forecast window always starts next month. This ensures the projection is always grounded in the most recent real data.
Navigation sections
- Summary — Six KPI cards giving a snapshot of the portfolio and the projection.
- Forecast — Combined historical + projection chart with a confidence band, plus a detail table.
- By Executive — Two charts (shipments and conversion rate per executive) and a full detail table.
How Each Metric Is Calculated
Conversion Rate
What it is: Of every opportunity that reached a final outcome (won or lost), how many were won, expressed as a percentage.
How it is calculated: The number of won leads is divided by the sum of won plus lost leads, then multiplied by 100.
How to interpret it: A rate of 30% means that for every 10 closed opportunities, 3 became active customers. A higher rate indicates a more effective pipeline.
Filters that affect it: Executives and countries.
Example: If an executive had 12 won and 28 lost opportunities, their conversion rate is 30% (12 ÷ 40 × 100).
Estimated Closing Time
What it is: Average number of days a lead takes, from the first registered activity, to being marked as won.
How it is calculated: For every lead that was won and had a recorded first activity date, the elapsed days between that first activity and the won date are computed. The average of those values gives the estimated closing time.
How to interpret it: A value of 45 days means the executive's accounts close, on average, a month and a half after the first contact. A shorter closing time generally indicates a more efficient sales process.
Fallback: If an executive does not yet have enough closed deals to produce a personal average, the overall team average (within the current filter) is used instead.
Filters that affect it: Executives and countries.
Historical Shipments (Last 6 Months)
What it is: The actual number of shipments made by the managed accounts assigned to the selected executives, grouped by calendar month, over the last semester.
How it is calculated: Monthly shipment snapshots recorded for each account are summed by calendar month within the 6-month lookback window. Only accounts matching the selected executives and countries are included.
How to interpret it: This is the "real" baseline on which the projection is built. A consistent upward trend here implies higher confidence in the forecast. A flat or declining trend should be taken into account when reading the projected numbers.
Filters that affect it: Executives and countries.
Accounts and Prospects
What they are:
- Accounts — Active customers already operating with the company and assigned to the selected executives.
- Prospects — Leads currently in the follow-up pipeline that have not yet been won.
How they are calculated: Each record in the CRM is classified as either a company (account) or a prospect. The counts reflect all records matching the active filters.
How to interpret them: A large number of prospects relative to accounts suggests high pipeline activity. The ratio between them, combined with the conversion rate, gives a rough idea of how many new accounts are likely to appear over the forecast horizon.
Filters that affect them: Executives and countries.
Expected Contribution of an Active Lead
What it is: How many monthly shipments a lead is expected to add to the portfolio if and when it converts to a won account.
How it is calculated: The monthly shipment volume declared on the lead's record (the volume the executive estimates the account will ship) is multiplied by the executive's conversion rate.
How to interpret it: A lead that declares 100 shipments per month, managed by an executive with a 30% conversion rate, contributes an expected 30 monthly shipments to the forecast — not 100, because statistically only 30% of that executive's leads convert.
Filters that affect it: Executives (via conversion rate) and countries.
Projected Closing Month
What it is: In how many months from today each active lead is expected to close.
How it is calculated: The executive's estimated closing time is translated to a month index by dividing the average days by 30 and rounding up. For example, 45 days maps to month 2 (next month + 1). If the estimated time exceeds 6 months, the lead falls outside the forecast horizon and does not contribute to the projection.
How to interpret it: This explains why the projection chart often shows growth in months 2–4: as more leads reach their projected closing month, their expected contribution enters the forecast.
Filters that affect it: Executives (via avg closing days) and countries.
Monthly Projection (Next 6 Months)
What it is: Expected number of shipments for each of the next 6 calendar months.
How it is calculated: Two components are added together for each month:
- Recurring baseline — The average of the last 3 months of historical actuals. This captures the stable, recurring shipment volume from accounts that are already won and continue to ship.
- Pipeline contribution — For each active lead, the expected monthly shipments (declared volume × conversion rate) are added starting from the month the lead is projected to close.
How to interpret it: On the chart, the solid blue line is the historical record; the dashed green line is the projection. A projection that rises steadily means the pipeline is healthy and closing activity is expected to ramp up. A flat projection means most of the volume will come from recurring accounts.
Filters that affect it: Executives and countries.
Confidence Band
What it is: An optimistic/pessimistic range around the central projection for each month.
How it is calculated: A ±20% margin is applied to each month's projected shipment count, producing a lower bound (−20%) and an upper bound (+20%). This margin was chosen to mirror the internal "accurate forecast" standard already used in the Forecast Security module, where a result between 80% and 120% of the estimate is considered precise.
How to interpret it: The actual outcome is expected to fall inside the band most of the time. If the band is very wide relative to the central value (which happens when the pipeline has few leads with reliable data), the projection carries more uncertainty.
6-Month Projected Total
What it is: The sum of projected shipments across the full 6-month forecast horizon.
How it is calculated: The projected shipments for months 1 through 6 are added together.
How to interpret it: This is the headline KPI for strategic planning. It can be directly compared to the "Last 6 months" historical total shown in the Summary section to understand whether the portfolio is expected to grow, stay flat, or shrink.
The Projected Revenue figure multiplies the projected shipments by the average cost per shipment (normalized to USD using the locale exchange rate).
Full Example
Maria is a sales executive with the following profile:
- 10 active leads, each with a declared volume of 50 shipments per month.
- Historical conversion rate: 30% (she has closed 9 out of 30 resolved opportunities).
- Average closing time: 60 days (her deals close, on average, in month 2).
- Recurring baseline (average of her last 3 months of actual shipments): 200 shipments/month.
How the forecast is built:
- Each of her 10 leads contributes an expected 15 shipments/month (50 × 30%).
- All 10 leads are projected to close in month 2 (60 days ÷ 30 = 2).
- From month 2 onward, the pipeline adds 150 shipments/month (10 × 15) to the baseline.
| Month | Baseline | Pipeline | Projected | Low (−20%) | High (+20%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 200 | 0 | 200 | 160 | 240 |
| Month 2 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 280 | 420 |
| Month 3 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 280 | 420 |
| Month 4 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 280 | 420 |
| Month 5 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 280 | 420 |
| Month 6 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 280 | 420 |
6-month projected total: 200 + 5 × 350 = 1,950 shipments.